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Spread history
The gap between quoted and realized value, tracked over time.
A single exit gap tells you the cost of acting now. The series tells you which direction the book is moving, which is usually the more actionable fact.
The dangerous configuration is not a falling price. It is a rising price on a draining book — the shape the August 2026 rotation produced, and the one a price-only risk model structurally cannot see because both of its inputs looked fine.
Every point in the series is computed at a stated size, so a spread history is always a spread history for a size. Changing the size changes the curve, sometimes completely.
What this rests on